How to use the scenarios

    Methodology · Keltner D1

    Understand the rule behind the scenario

    This page describes the automated Keltner D1 module (keltner_d1@1). It does not describe every Copilot analysis or make its scenarios recommendations.

    From data to tracking

    01

    Daily data

    The module evaluates BTCUSD and ETHUSD using closed daily candles. Evaluating a candle does not mean a scenario must be published.

    • Only complete D1 candles are used, not the candle still forming.
    • The bands are calculated from candles before the close being evaluated.
    • Insufficient data or unavailable market conditions prevent scenario generation.
    02

    A breakout rule

    The channel combines an exponential moving average (EMA) and the average true range (ATR), a measure of price variation. The rule is fixed and is not decided by a language model.

    • Channel: a 20-period EMA with bands at 2×20-period ATR.
    • Close above the upper band: long scenario. Below the lower band: short scenario.
    • If the close is inside the channel, this rule does not produce a signal.
    03

    Scenario levels

    Entry, stop and target follow the same volatility rule. They are tracking references, not guaranteed execution prices.

    • Theoretical entry: the daily candle’s close that satisfies the rule.
    • Stop distance: 1.5×ATR. Target distance: twice the stop distance (2R).
    • The stop is below entry for a long scenario and above entry for a short scenario; the target is in the opposite direction.
    04

    Recording and tracking

    The module records the scenario and tracking compares its levels against later closed candles according to the resolution rules.

    • The record includes strategy version, decision time, direction and levels.
    • Pending, resolved and cancelled scenarios are distinguished; entry and holding windows have separate expiry times.
    • Metrics describe scenario tracking, not trades executed in a real account.

    Rules you can check

    • 01Keltner D1 uses a 20-period EMA and bands at 2×20-period ATR, calculated from candles before the one being evaluated.
    • 02The decision uses a completed daily candle’s close: above the upper band for a long scenario, below the lower band for a short scenario.
    • 03The theoretical entry is that close; the stop is 1.5×ATR away and the target is twice that distance (2R).
    • 04The strategy version, evaluated candle and scenario levels are recorded before its outcome is known.
    • 05The module avoids adding another automated D1 scenario for the same instrument and direction while one is pending.

    What the record lets you review

    The record preserves the rules and levels used. It allows the process and its tracking to be examined; it is not an independent certification or a guarantee of complete data or a favorable outcome.

    What this rule does not prove

    A reproducible rule and a 2R target do not prove a profitable edge. Win rate changes with the sample and period; review it alongside losses, costs and scope notes without projecting it onto your account.

    • The close used as the entry is a scenario reference. Your execution price, spread and slippage may differ.
    • This rule does not incorporate news or confirm a trade using other timeframes. A breakout can fail.
    • Tracking depends on available data and resolution rules. Scenarios may remain pending or be cancelled; expiry is not equivalent to a trade without losses.

    Capital at risk: Scenarios are educational information, not personalized instructions to trade. A theoretical stop does not guarantee a maximum loss or remove the risks of CFD trading.

    Compare the rule with available results

    Review the sample and metric notes. That page combines scenarios published live from different sources; it is not an exclusive measure of Keltner D1.

    View published metrics

    Metrics are public. Sign in to Tálamo to view available individual records.